Catenaa, Monday, May 12, 2025- JPMorgan Chase could become the first bank to reach a $1 trillion market capitalization within the next three years, Wells Fargo said on Sunday.
Wells Fargo analyst Mike Mayo and colleagues wrote in a May 11 note that if the largest US bank maintains its lead in returns, efficiency and market share, it’s a matter of “more like ‘when’ and not ‘if’ JP Morgan reaches the $1 trillion market cap milestone.”
Achieving a $1 trillion market cap would make JPMorgan the first bank to join the ranks of tech giants like Apple and Nvidia.
Wells Fargo’s forecast assumes a degree of deregulation, where JPMorgan stands to be among the biggest beneficiaries, as well as continued economic growth and a subsiding trade war.
Mayo added that a $1 trillion market capitalization now seems in sight over three years, so long as concerns around capital, competition costs and CEO succession don’t derail progress.
Wells Fargo cautioned, however, that if there is a recession and a bear market, talk about a $1 trillion valuation won’t be happening.
“It would involve our ‘good case’ scenario, effective deployment of record excess capital, and a stock that trades at a P/E achieved in Trump 1.0,” they wrote.
The good-case scenario is 2027 end EPS of $25 per share, versus a base-case of $22 a share. The bank could accumulate $200 billion of excess capital over three years before buybacks, depending on earnings and regulatory developments.
JPMorgan shares are up as much as 4.2% on Monday morning before coming down to 2.6% by afternoon, trading at $259.70 with a market capitalization of about $721.7 billion.
Wells Fargo rates the stock overweight, with a price target of $300, while data compiled by Bloomberg shows the 12-month average price target among analysts at $258.45.
