WASHINGTON, Monday, June 17, 2024 – The World Bank has revised its forecast for the global economy, predicting a 2.6% expansion in 2024, up from its previous estimate of 2.4% in January. This outlook matches the global growth seen in 2023, driven primarily by the strong performance of the United States economy.1
Despite this positive adjustment, the World Bank cautioned that global growth remains slow by historical standards.
The US, the world’s largest economy, is a major contributor to this upgraded forecast, accounting for 80% of the increase. The World Bank now expects the U.S. economy to grow by 2.5% in 2024, up from its January prediction of 1.6%, and matching the 2.5% growth recorded in 2023.
The U.S. economy grew at a modest 1.3% annual rate in the first quarter of this year, the slowest in nearly two years, but this was due to temporary factors like a surge in imports and reduced business inventories. Core components, such as consumer spending and business investment, remained strong.
Both the global and U.S. economies have shown unexpected resilience despite high interest rates imposed by the Federal Reserve and other central banks to combat inflation that began in 2021. Inflation has decreased from 7.2% in 2022 to 4.9% last year, with a forecast of 3.5% in 2024, but it remains above central bank targets, suggesting a cautious approach to lowering rates.
The outlook for emerging markets and developing economies is less optimistic, with expected growth at 4% this year, down from 4.2% in 2023. In many cases, economic growth is lagging behind population increases, leading to lower income growth per person.
- openknowledge.worldbank.org: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/62a41ee3-b385-4f87-bd8b-1f413ef3e73d/content[↩]
