Catenaa, Wednesday, August 20, 2025- US budget deficits will be nearly $1 trillion higher over the next decade than projected in January by the Congressional Budget Office, a budget watchdog said on Wednesday.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget’s latest forecasts show a cumulative deficit of $22.7 trillion from fiscal 2026 to 2035, compared to the CBO’s January forecast of $21.8 trillion, which was based on laws and policies that were in place before US President Donald Trump took office in January.
The CBO, Congress’s non-partisan budget referee agency, said on Monday that it will not issue its customary mid-year budget update this year and will issue its next 10-year budget and economic outlook in early 2026, not explaining the move.
The CRFB, which advocates for deficit reduction, projected a $1.7 trillion deficit in fiscal 2025 or 5.6% of GDP, down slightly from $1.83 trillion in 2024 and the CBO’s 2025 projection of $1.87 trillion in January.
But it said deficits steadily rise over the decade, reaching $2.6 trillion or 5.9% of GDP by 2035.
The new CRFB estimates include the budget effects of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act tax and spending bill, as well as Trump’s tariffs that are currently in place.
But like CBO, they do not include the dynamic economic effects on growth from these changes, a forecasting rule that has drawn criticism from the Trump administration.
The group projects the tax cut and spending bill to increase deficits, including interest, by $4.6 trillion through 2035, adding another year to the CBO’s $4.1 trillion cost estimate through 2034.
But CRFB estimates that this will be offset by $3.4 trillion worth of extra import duty revenue over the next decade due to Trump’s new tariffs that are currently in place.
