Catenaa, Friday, July 11, 2025- US banks are expected to show trading revenue gains from the 90 days that followed President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcements.
Data compiled by Bloomberg shows that six of the biggest US banks are scheduled to disclose second-quarter results next week, with analysts predicting trading-revenue increases for all of them.
That’s largely due to record trading days for some firms in the aftermath of Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcements in April.
In equities, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is expected to be the leader, with a $3.7 billion haul forecast, followed closely by Morgan Stanley.
In fixed income, currencies and commodities, JPMorgan Chase & Co. is likely to lead, with $5.2 billion for the quarter, followed by Citigroup Inc.
What’s less certain than the banks’ second-quarter earnings is how they plan to drive even larger profits on the back of policies coming out of Washington.
Plans by US regulators to ease capital rules may help banks in their fight to reclaim trading share from market-making firms such as Jane Street Group and Citadel Securities, which have grown rapidly in recent years.
In particular, a lighter supplementary leverage ratio would free up banks to hold more US Treasuries and increase capacity for lucrative businesses.
Results from a relaxed version of the Federal Reserve’s annual stress test last week, when combined with the proposed SLR changes, are set to potentially unlock as much as $70 billion of capital from the six biggest US lenders.
Stocks of the six biggest lenders were down on Friday morning as the market reacted to the 35% tariffs imposed on Canada by President Trump.
Results from investment bankers are expected to be more mixed next week, with second-quarter deals largely snarled by the uncertainty caused by Trump’s trade war.
While some banks were able to maintain revenue momentum with big-ticket deals closing in the quarter, delivering healthy payouts, others are unlikely to fare as well.
Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and Wells Fargo & Co. are expected to post gains in investment banking from a year earlier, but numbers at JPMorgan and Bank of America Corp. are likely to dip.
Goldman is predicted to post a jump in financial advisory fees of 22%, while Bank of America could post a drop of 17%, according to analysts.
