BERLIN, Germany, Wednesday, April 24, 2024 – The annual cost of climate change could reach $38 trillion by 2050, six times higher than the estimated cost of limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, a new study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) published in Nature said on April 17.
The study projects a potential decline of at least 20% in global GDP by 2050 if current emissions trends persist.
The researchers based their calculations on a scenario where countries achieve some, but not all, of their emissions reduction goals.
They warn that the financial impact could be significantly worse if more ambitious targets are not met.
These economic losses would be felt across various sectors, with agriculture, infrastructure, and coastal communities particularly vulnerable.
The study highlights a concerning disparity in the impact of climate change. While all regions will experience economic losses, poorer nations and those with lower historical emissions are projected to suffer disproportionately.
“Countries that have contributed least to global warming are expected to experience income losses 60% greater than high-income countries and 40% greater than high-emission countries,” explained Dr. Anders Levermann, a senior PIK scientist.1
The study cites potential economic shrinkage of around 11% by mid-century for developed economies like Germany and the United States, even under a scenario with successful climate action.
Excluded from these calculations are the additional costs associated with climate-related natural disasters like storms and fires, which are expected to further escalate.
“We project significant economic losses for most regions, including North America and Europe,” said Dr. Maximilian Kotz, a co-author of the study.
“South Asia and Africa are projected to be the hardest hit. These losses stem from a range of climate-induced factors impacting agricultural yields, labor productivity, and infrastructure.”
Researchers emphasize the danger of inaction, noting that the study only accounts for the effects of carbon already in the atmosphere. They urge swift and drastic reductions in CO2 emissions to mitigate the potential economic damage. Studies like the Stern Report in 2006 presented similar warnings, highlighting the high cost of inaction compared to the cost of climate action.
- dw.com: https://www.dw.com/en/climate-change-to-wreck-global-income-by-2050-study-shows/a-68852314[↩]
