Catenaa, Friday, May 23, 2025-JPMorgan analysts are casting doubt on bullish forecasts that stablecoin supply could surpass $1 trillion within the next two years, even as US lawmakers advance regulatory measures like the GENIUS Act.1
In a report shared with The Block on Wednesday, analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said expectations of tripling or quadrupling stablecoin growth from its current $240 billion base are “far too optimistic.”
The report comes as the US Senate pushes forward the GENIUS Act, a bipartisan bill that seeks to regulate stablecoins as non-interest-bearing “payment” assets.
JPMorgan said the inability to offer yields will likely limit the sector’s competitiveness compared to interest-bearing instruments like money market funds, which saw $900 billion in inflows over the past year.
The bank sees future stablecoin growth as tied to two primary factors: integration into payment systems and the expansion of the broader crypto ecosystem, particularly through decentralized finance (DeFi), NFTs and other applications. Without these drivers, analysts say, projections of rapid expansion are unrealistic.
While firms like Citi and Standard Chartered have predicted the stablecoin market could exceed $1 trillion, JPMorgan remains skeptical unless key structural constraints are lifted. The report notes that yield-bearing products, including tokenized treasuries such as BlackRock’s BUIDL and Figure Markets’ YLDS, may absorb more capital.
JPMorgan also warned that non-compliant issuers like Tether may face pressure under new rules, especially on reserve transparency. Algorithmic stablecoins, including DAI, would be effectively banned.
- theblock.co: https://www.theblock.co/post/355413/jpmorgan-casts-doubt-trillion-dollar-stablecoin-forecasts-us-regulation[↩]
