Catenaa, Wednesday, April 09, 2025-Goldman Sachs forecasted a 2.4 percentage point cut to China’s GDP growth due to US President Donald Trump’s 104% tariffs on Chinese goods, which took full effect early Wednesday.
The sweeping levies, analysts warn, could derail Beijing’s 5% growth target for 2025 and have already sparked renewed fears of a prolonged trade war.
Goldman’s revised forecast puts China’s expansion at 4.5% for the year, citing heavy reliance by the United States on Chinese supply chains.
The firm warned that the economic shock may deepen if China retaliates and trade tensions escalate.
The new tariffs include a 34% hike announced last week, added to previous rounds, forming a 104% cumulative duty.
The White House said the tariffs are aimed at rebalancing trade and penalizing countries with surpluses against the US.
The president’s policy now imposes a minimum 10% duty on nearly all U.S. trading partners, with higher rates for surplus nations.
Imports from smaller economies also took a hit: 50% on Lesotho, 47% on Madagascar, 46% on Vietnam, and 32% on Taiwan.
Key US allies such as South Korea, Japan and the EU face levies between 20% and 25%.
Beijing has vowed retaliation, and Trump has threatened a further 50% levy on top of existing rates.
Economists warn that deepening tariffs could strain global supply chains and inject fresh volatility into markets already grappling with economic uncertainty.
