Catenaa, Saturday, April 12, 2025- Goldman Sachs economists withdrew a recession prediction Wednesday just over an hour after issuing it, following President Donald Trump announced a pause of new tariffs on multiple countries.
The initial forecast, released shortly before 1 p.m., projected a 65% chance of recession within the next 12 months, citing country-specific tariffs that took effect Monday. But at 1:18 p.m., Trump announced via Truth Social a 90-day pause on most reciprocal tariffs, prompting Goldman to reverse its call at 2:10 p.m.
The quick turnaround highlighted how rapidly evolving US trade policy is complicating economic forecasts.
Trump’s statement maintained a sharp increase in tariffs on China — raised by 125% — but offered relief to more than 75 countries that, he said, refrained from retaliating.
He authorized a temporary 10% reciprocal tariff instead, citing active negotiations on trade issues including barriers and currency manipulation.
The tariff pause offers short-term clarity, but experts warn the uncertainty may persist as negotiations continue and global markets adjust.
