Fed’s Preferred Inflation Gauge Rises In June After Rate Hold

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In Summary

  • The “core” Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rose 0.3% from the prior month
  • On an annual basis, core prices rose 2.8%
  • The release comes just one day after the Fed opted to hold interest rates steady at its July meeting
  • Powell aid that it’s still the “early days” of any tariff impact on inflation and that there is still “a long way to go”


Catenaa, Thursday, July 31, 2025- The US Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge showed price increases accelerated in June as inflation remained above the Fed’s 2% target.

The “core” Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which strips out food and energy costs and is closely watched by the central bank, rose 0.3% from the prior month, in line with the 0.3% economists had expected and above the 0.2% increase seen in May.

On an annual basis, core prices rose 2.8%, above the 2.7% economists had expected and in line with May’s reading. May’s 2.8% reading was revised higher from an initially reported 2.7% increase.

The release comes just one day after the Fed opted to hold interest rates steady at its July meeting, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressing that it’s still the “early days” of any tariff impact on inflation and that there is still “a long way to go” before the full effects will be clear.

Elsewhere in the release, data showed mixed signs of slowing economic growth activity. Real personal spending, which adjusts for inflation, rose 0.3%, below estimates for a 0.4% increase.

Real personal spending decreased 0.3% in May. Meanwhile, personal income rose 0.3% after falling 0.4% the month prior.

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