Beijing, Friday, October 18, 2024-China’s economy grew at its slowest rate since early 2023, as official figures for the third quarter revealed a 4.6% increase in gross domestic product (GDP).
The figure, released by the National Bureau of Statistics, fell short of the government’s “around 5%” target for 2024, marking the second consecutive quarter of slower-than-expected growth.
The decline comes amid increasing concerns over the nation’s economic health. Although the GDP figures slightly exceeded analysts’ predictions, other economic indicators, such as retail sales and factory output, also surpassed forecasts but still reflect a broader struggle to recover from the recent slowdown.
Economic experts are divided on China’s outlook.
Eswar Prasad, the former head of the International Monetary Fund’s China division, stated that reaching the annual growth target “now appears in serious jeopardy.” According to him, a significant stimulus will be needed in the final quarter to boost growth.
On the other hand, Moody’s economist Harry Murphy Cruise is more optimistic, believing that Beijing’s stimulus measures could help China achieve its annual target.
However, China’s property market remains a significant obstacle, with September home prices falling at their fastest rate in nearly a decade. Lynn Song, ING’s chief economist for greater China, emphasized that the real estate sector continues to drag down growth, with housing prices and inventories needing stabilization before recovery is possible.
In response, China’s central bank and other financial institutions have announced new efforts to support growth, including large cuts to interest rates and initiatives to increase lending.
Despite these measures, ongoing challenges like the property crisis and weakened consumer confidence are hindering recovery efforts in the world’s second-largest economy.
On Monday October 14, 2024 – Goldman Sachs raised China’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2024 to 4.9% from the previous estimate of 4.7%.
