Catenaa, Tuesday, March 25, 2025- Americans’ expectations for the economy fell to a 12-year low in March, data showed on Tuesday, as consumers expect a recession ahead with uncertainty in Trump’s handling of the economy.
The latest consumer confidence index reading from the Conference Board was 92.9 in March, below the 100.1 seen in February and the lowest level in more than four years.
The expectations index, which is based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, ticked down to 65.2 from 72.9 and remained below the threshold of 80 — which typically signals recession ahead — for the second straight month.
This marked a 12-year low for the expectations index, which was driven in part by consumers’ expectations of their financial situation hitting its lowest level in more than two years.
Earlier this month after imposing 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, those duties were quickly delayed by President Donald Trump for another month after complaints from business leaders; then, after the European Union retaliated to Trump’s metal tariffs, the president continued to up the ante by threatening a mega 200% tariff on European alcohol.
The Conference Board noted in the release that of the five components that contribute to consumer confidence, only the respondents’ assessment of current labor market conditions moved higher in March.
Future expectations were particularly dour, with consumers’ inflation expectations rising to 6.2% in March, up from 5.8% in February. For the first time since 2023, consumers turned negative on the stock market outlook, with just 37.4% of respondents expecting stocks to rise over the next year.
Meanwhile, those expecting a lower income in the next 12 months rose to 15.5% from 12.8% in February, marking the highest level of respondents expecting a lower income in the next year since November 2022.
