Catenaa, Thursday, July 10, 2025-Options traders are positioning for significant price moves in Bitcoin and Ethereum this July after volatility declined sharply in June, according to data from onchain options platform Derive.xyz.
Bitcoin briefly dipped below $100,000 amid Middle East military strikes in June but rebounded to about $107,000. Ether held near $2,600, dipping briefly to $2,200 during geopolitical tensions.
Despite fears of a larger conflict, markets stabilized following ceasefire agreements. Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility fell to 36% from 44%, while Ethereum’s dropped to 60% from 68%, reflecting traders’ expectations of contained fallout.
Derive’s research head Sean Dawson noted traders had positioned for limited volatility, which materialized.
Looking ahead, Derive’s probability model assigns a 10% chance Bitcoin will top $130,000 by August’s end, but open interest clusters around $130,000 to $135,000 calls and $85,000 to $90,000 puts suggest bets on both upward and downward moves.
Ethereum options show a bullish tilt, with nearly 80% of July call open interest above $3,000. Developments like Robinhood’s plan to issue tokenized stocks and launch a Layer 2 on Arbitrum could support a breakout, said Dawson.
With volatility low and positions split, traders now watch Fed policy, macroeconomic data, and geopolitics closely for triggers in crypto markets.
