New York, Wednesday, September 11, 2024 – A new report by Outlier Ventures suggests that Bitcoin’s halving events no longer drive its price movements, signaling a shift in the maturing cryptocurrency market.
The study, released Tuesday, argues that halving events, which reduce miners’ block rewards by half every four years, have lost their influence since 2016.
The report, written by Jasper De Maere, the research lead at Outlier Ventures, claims that Bitcoin’s price trends are now dictated more by macroeconomic factors and the approval of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) than by the supply shock from halvings. De Maere emphasizes that the last halving event to have a significant impact was in 2016.
“We believe 2016 marked the last time the halving had a fundamental effect on BTC price action,” De Maere wrote.
He noted that while the 2020 halving occurred, the price surge that followed was more likely a result of massive global capital injections during the post-Covid recovery, including a 25.3% increase in the U.S. money supply.
The report challenges the long-standing belief that the four-year Bitcoin halving cycle plays a key role in price predictions. Instead, it points to the growing importance of market demand catalysts, such as Bitcoin ETF approvals, in shaping the cryptocurrency’s future price trajectory.
Though De Maere acknowledges that halvings may still hold psychological value for some investors, he argues their fundamental impact is now minimal. The report calls on crypto investors and market participants to focus on macroeconomic trends rather than relying on halving events to time the market.
